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The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

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  • Costa, Carlos E. da
  • Issler, João Victor
  • Matos, Paulo F.

Abstract

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discountfactor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized factsthat escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection ofa pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicatethat a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long waytoward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictabilityissues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that areknown to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Eulerequations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)’s foreign currency portfolios.Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currencymarket asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

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Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 712.

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Date of creation: 05 Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:712

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  1. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  2. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
  3. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Viallet, Claude J., 1992. "Equity risk premia and the pricing of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 199-219, November.
  4. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-040, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  5. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
  6. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrei G. Simonassi, 2006. "Estimando A Taxa De Retorno Livre De Risco No Brasil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 180, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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