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Nominal Exchange Rate Patterns: Correlationswith Entry, Exit, and Invesment in U.S. Industry

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  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

The view that the strength of the dollar in the early 1980s was associated with persistent restructuring of United States industry is supported by correlations between exchange rate patterns and data on business formation, business failure and sectoral investment in new plant and equipment. Short term trend depreciations of the dollar are associated with reallocation of resources across sectors, while longer term trend depreciations are associated with investment expansions in many sectors of industry. Persistent exchange rate volatility is strongly associated with investment contractions, with this effect weakest during depreciation periods. This suggests a second order effect of depreciation trends: during trend depreciation periods the negative and significant correlation between exchange rate volatility and investment is reduced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3249.

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Date of creation: Jan 1990
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Publication status: published as "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry", Review of Economics and Statistics, (November 1993) vol 75, no4, pp 575-588
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3249

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  1. Robert E. Lipsey & Guy V.G. Stevens, 1988. "Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment," NBER Working Papers 2714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
  3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
  4. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  5. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
  6. Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Schimberni & Robert V. Lindsay, 1988. "Changing Patterns of International Investment in and by the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The United States in the World Economy, pages 475-558 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  8. Robert E. Lipsey & Linda Molinari & Irving B. Kravis, 1990. "Measures of Prices and Price Competitiveness in International Trade in Manufactured Goods," NBER Working Papers 3442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Catherine Mann, 1989. "The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan, Germany, and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 588-618, September.
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Cited by:
  1. de Brito, José Brandão & de Mello Sampayo, Felipa, 2002. "The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  2. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 3953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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