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Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate the factors determining the impact of exchange rate regimes on the behavior of domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI), and the correlation between exchange rate volatility and investment. We assume that producers may diversify internationally in order to increase the flexibility of production: being a multinational enables producers to reallocate employment and production towards the more efficient or the cheaper plant. We characterize the possible equilibria in a macro model that allows for the presence of a short-run Phillips curve, under a fixed and a flexible exchange rate regime. It is shown that a fixed exchange rate regime is more conducive to FDI relative to a flexible exchange rate, and this conclusion applies for both real and nominal shocks. The correlation between investment and exchange rate volatility under a flexible exchange rate is shown to depend on the nature of the shocks. If the dominant shocks are nominal, we will observe a negative correlation, whereas if the dominant shocks are real, we will observe a positive correlation between exchange rate volatility and the level of investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3953.

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Date of creation: Jan 1992
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Publication status: published as "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," from International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp . 890-922 (December 1992).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3953

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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 2914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard C. Marston & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Imported Materials Prices, Wage Policy, and Macro-economic Stabilization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 273-84, May.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  4. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Interventions in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 574-92, November.
  5. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
  6. Flood, Robert P & Marion, Nancy Peregrim, 1982. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 43-66, February.
  7. Lars E.O. Svensson & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Wage indexation and macroeconomics stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 107-147, January.
  9. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Nominal Exchange Rate Patterns: Correlationswith Entry, Exit, and Invesment in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 3249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 1992. "Capital Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, and Debt-Equity Swaps in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Joshua Aizenman, 1991. "Foreign Direct Investment, Productive Capacity and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 3767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.

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