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Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate the factors determining the impact of exchange rate regimes on the behavior of domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI), and the correlation between exchange rate volatility and investment. We assume that producers may diversify internationally in order to increase the flexibility of production: being a multinational enables producers to reallocate employment and production towards the more efficient or the cheaper plant. We characterize the possible equilibria in a macro model that allows for the presence of a short-run Phillips curve, under a fixed and a flexible exchange rate regime. It is shown that a fixed exchange rate regime is more conducive to FDI relative to a flexible exchange rate, and this conclusion applies for both real and nominal shocks. The correlation between investment and exchange rate volatility under a flexible exchange rate is shown to depend on the nature of the shocks. If the dominant shocks are nominal, we will observe a negative correlation, whereas if the dominant shocks are real, we will observe a positive correlation between exchange rate volatility and the level of investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3953.

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Date of creation: May 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3953

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 785-805, September.
  2. Richard C. Marston & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Imported Materials Prices, Wage Policy, and Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 1254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1980. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimeswith Optimal Indexing," NBER Working Papers 0500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Nominal Exchange Rate Patterns: Correlationswith Entry, Exit, and Invesment in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 3249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
  6. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Joshua Aizenman, 1991. "Foreign Direct Investment, Productive Capacity and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 3767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Interventions in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 574-92, November.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Todd Schneider & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Faisal Ahmed & Saade Chami, 2007. "Yemen: Exchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports," IMF Working Papers 07/5, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure," NBER Working Papers 4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
  4. Hommel, Ulrich, 2003. "Financial versus operative hedging of currency risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, May.
  5. Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michal Brzozowski, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment - Consequences of EMU Enlargement," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0258, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 1999. "Exchange Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting FDI," Working Papers 1999-16, CEPII research center.
  8. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
  9. Selin Sayek & Alexander Lehmann & Hyoung Goo Kang, 2004. "Multinational Affiliates and Local Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/107, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Firoozi, Fathali, 1997. "Multinationals FDI and uncertainty: an exposition," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-273, October.
  11. Lee, Bong-Soo & Min, Byung S., 2011. "Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 586-603, November.
  12. Sandy Kyaw, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries in the Globalised World," Working Papers id:758, eSocialSciences.

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