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Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment

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  • Robert E. Lipsey
  • Guy V.G. Stevens

Abstract

We present a model of portfolio allocation by noise traders who form incorrect expectations about the variance of the return distribution of a particular asset. We show that for many types of misperceptions, as long as such noise traders do not affect prices, they earn higher expected returns than do rational investors with similar degrees of risk aversion. Moreover, many such noise traders survive and dominate the market in terms of wealth in the long run, in the sense that the probability that noise traders will eventually have a high share of the economy's wealth is arbitrarily close to one. Noise traders come to dominate the market despite the fact that they take excessive risk that skews the distribution of their long run wealth and despite their excessive consumption. We conclude that the theoretical case against the long run viability of noise traders is by no means as clear cut as is commonly supposed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2714.

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Date of creation: Sep 1988
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, pp. 40-62, (1992).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2714

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  1. Guy V.G. Stevens, 1986. "Internal funds and the investment functions: exploring the theoretical justification of some empirical results," Special Studies Papers 199, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Alan K. Severn, 1972. "Investment And Financial Behavior Of American Direct Investors In Manufacturing," NBER Chapters, in: International Mobility and Movement of Capital, pages 367-396 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  4. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Ksenia Kulchycky, 1987. "U.S. and Swedish Direct Investment and Exports," NBER Working Papers 2390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Peter M. Garber & Robert G. King, 1983. "Deep Structral Excavation? A Critique of Euler Equation Methods," NBER Technical Working Papers 0031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
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