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Leadership and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Simulation Approach

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Nouriel Roubini

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Abstract

To assess the importance of economic interdependence and the potential gains from policy coordination in the European area, this paper analyzes the international transmission of policies and disturbances in a rational expectation dynamic general equilibrium simulation model of the work economy, and applies the analysis to the study of the European Monetary System. International spillover effects and potential gains from coordination appear to be small under the assumption of flexible exchange rates in the European area. The implications of a fixed rate EMS with German leadership are compared with those of a cooperative fixed exchange rate regime. Finally, capital controls under fixed rates fails to insure policy autonomy and insulation from external disturbances for the countries restricting the capital movements.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3044.

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Date of creation: Jul 1989
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Publication status: published as Journal of Policy Modeling, April 1991.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3044

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  1. Ishii, Naoko & McKibbin, Warwick & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "The economic policy mix, policy cooperation, and protectionism: Some aspects of macroeconomic interdependence among the United States, Japan, and other OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 533-572. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McKibbin, Warwick & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Macroeconomic Policies in the OECD and LDC External Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 56, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1984. "Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 223-239, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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