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Target zones and exchange rate management: A stability analysis of the European Monetary System

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  • Andrew Hughes-Hallett
  • Patrick Minford

Abstract

Since the creation of the EMS in 1979 and the Louvre Accord in 1987, economists and policy makers have debated whether exchange rate management can actually secure better economic performance. This paper supplies some empirical evidence to help answer that question in the context of an environment free of unanticipated shocks. Our results identify the important design characteristics of a target zone or EMS type system focusing on the width of the bands, the length of time between realignments, and the choice of exchange rate parity. Secondly we examine the popular “conservation of variance†theory: that reducing exchange rate instability will just cause greater instability in the underlying monetary controls. Finally we produce evidence to support the claim that the method of exchange rate management is important because gross or persistent misalignments cause large welfare losses whereas moderate misalignments would impose only small costs. Work on the EMS relative robustness to shocks is under way. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1990

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 1 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 175-200

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:1:y:1990:i:2:p:175-200

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rate Regimes; stability trade-offs; monetary union and cooperation; EMS;

References

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  1. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Gray, Jo Anna, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-cooperative Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 547-64, October.
  2. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
  3. Melitz, Jacques, 1985. "The welfare case for the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 485-506, December.
  4. Miller, Marcus H. & Williamson, John, 1988. "The international monetary system : An analysis of alternative regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1031-1048, June.
  5. Hughes Hallett, A. J., 1986. "Policy design in asymmetrically dependent economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 51-57, June.
  6. Cornell, Bradford & Shapiro, Alan C., 1985. "Interest rates and exchange rates: Some new empirical results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 431-442, December.
  7. Minford, Patrick & Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nowell, Eric, 1986. "A new classical econometric model of the world economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 154-174, July.
  8. Edison, Hali J. & Miller, Marcus H. & Williamson, John, 1987. "On evaluating and extending the target zone proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 199-224.
  9. Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1986. "The Impact of Interdependence on Economic Policy Design: The Case of the US, EEC and Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
  11. Ishii, Naoko & McKibbin, Warwick & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "The economic policy mix, policy cooperation, and protectionism: Some aspects of macroeconomic interdependence among the United States, Japan, and other OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 533-572.
  12. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Evaluating Blueprints for the Conduct of International Macro Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 264-69, May.
  13. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
  14. Currie, David & Holtham, Gerald & Hughes, Gordon, 1989. "The Theory and Practice of International Policy Coordination: Does Coordination Pay?," CEPR Discussion Papers 325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Currie, David & Levine, Paul L & Vidalis, Nic, 1987. "International Cooperation and Reputation in an Empirical Two-Bloc Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Giavazzi,Francesco & Micossi,Stefano & Miller,Marcus (ed.), 1989. "The European Monetary System," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521389051.
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Cited by:
  1. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.

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