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Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention and the conditional variance tale in DM/$-returns

Author

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  • Geert J. Almekinders
  • Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Abstract

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-deutsche mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert J. Almekinders & Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger, 1992. "Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention and the conditional variance tale in DM/$-returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 438, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:438
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Gruijters, A.P.D., 1989. "On the short term objectives of daily intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the federal reserve system in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market," Other publications TiSEM b3c9a534-131a-48b4-abbb-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    4. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Gruijters, A.P.D., 1989. "On the effectiveness of daily interventions by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the federal reserve system in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market," Other publications TiSEM cd65eff1-5f9e-4262-8f38-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    8. Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, 1986. "Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1243-1248, September.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    10. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1991. "Empirical evidence on foreign exchange market intervention : Where do we stand?," Other publications TiSEM e280156a-07fa-4c3e-aa4f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 90-99, March.
    12. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1984. "Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 223-239, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheedy, Elizabeth, 1998. "Correlation in currency markets a risk-adjusted perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-82, January.
    2. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2009. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural," Borradores de Economia 580, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, June.

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