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Microeconomic Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability

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  • Mario J. Crucini
  • Christopher I. Telmer

Abstract

We provide three sets of variance decompositions on microeconomic international relative price data. The first shows that the overall distribution of absolute deviations from the Law of One Price (LOP) is dominated by cross-sectional variation in long-term averages, not by time-series variation around the long-term averages. The second shows that time-series variation in changes in LOP deviations is dominated by idiosyncratic, goods-specific variation, not by aggregate variation such as that arising from nominal exchange rates. The third shows that time-series and cross-sectional variance are connected across goods. Goods that exhibit high cross-sectional variance also exhibit high time-series variance. Moreover, when this connection is made conditional on the tradeability of a goods, a two-factor structure for the goods-specific cross-section is revealed. We argue that this factor structure, in addition to our other variance decompositions, is informative for the construction of models that can synthesize the micro and macroeconomic behavior of relative prices.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17978.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17978

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  1. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," NBER Working Papers 10540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2010. "Do Sticky Prices Increase Real Exchange Rate Volatility at the Sector Level?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 1120, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  2. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Trends in European real exchange rates," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 193-242, 04.
  3. Alvarez, Fernando & Dixit, Avinash, 2014. "A real options perspective on the future of the Euro," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 78-109.

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