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Real exchange rate fluctuations and the dynamics of retail trade industries on the U.S.-Canada border

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Author Info
Jeffrey R. Campbell
Beverly Lapham

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Abstract

Consumers living near the U.S.-Canada border can shift their expenditures between the two countries, so real exchange rate fluctuations can act as demand shocks to border areas' retailers. Using annual county-level data, we estimate the effects of real exchange rates on the number of establishments and their average employment in border counties for four retail industries. In three of the four industries we consider, the number of operating establishments responds either contemporaneously or with a lag of one year, so long-run changes in net entry in fact occur quickly enough to matter for short-run fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-02-17.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-02-17

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates Retail trade

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James Bergin & Dan Bernhardt, 1996. "Industry Dynamics over the Business Cycles," Working Papers 935, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1996. "Aggregate employment fluctuations with microeconomic asymmetries," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 112, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Di Matteo, Livio, 1999. "Using Alternative Methods to Estimate the Determinants of Cross-Border Trips," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 77-88, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  8. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  10. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0061, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Beverly Lapham, 2002. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the dynamics of retail trade industries on the U.S.-Canada border," Working Paper Series WP-02-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fishman, Arthur & Rob, Rafael, 2003. "Consumer inertia, firm growth and industry dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 24-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  18. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-93, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Beverly Lapham, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Dynamics of Retail Trade Industries on the U.S.-Canada Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1194-1206, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French & James MacDonald, 2004. "The minimum wage and restaurant prices," Working Paper Series WP-04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  3. Asplund, Marcus & Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2005. "Demand and Distance: Evidence on Cross-Border Shopping," CEPR Discussion Papers 4983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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