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Intergenerational Risksharing and Equilibrium Asset Prices

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Yves Nosbusch

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Abstract

In the presence of overlapping generations, markets are incomplete because it is impossible to engage in risksharing trades with the unborn. In such an environment the government can use a social security system, with contingent taxes and benefits, to improve risksharing across generations. An interesting question is how the form of the social security system affects asset prices in equilibrium. In this paper we set up a simple model with two risky factors of production: human capital, owned by the young, and physical capital, owned by all older generations. We show that a social security system that optimally shares risks across generations exposes future generations to a share of the risk in physical capital returns. Such a system reduces precautionary saving and increases the risk-bearing capacity of the economy. Under plausible conditions it increases the riskless interest rate, lowers the price of physical capital, and reduces the risk premium on physical capital.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12204.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12204

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2001. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow, Debreu, and Rawls, with Applications to Social Security Design," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1921, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Henning Bohn, 2004. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing and Fiscal Policy," 2004 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2002. "Junior Can'T Borrow: A New Perspective On The Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 269-296, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 2001. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Henning Bohn, . "Retirement Savings in an Aging Society: A Case for Innovative Government Debt Management," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 3-01, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Carlsson, Evert & Erlandzon, Karl, 2006. "The Bright Side of Shiller-Swaps: A Solution to Inter-generational Risk-sharing," Working Papers in Economics 233, Göteborg University, Department of Economics, revised 24 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luciano Greco, 2008. "A Note on Social Security and Public Debt," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0083, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
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