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Social Security Incidence under Uncertainty Assessing Italian Reforms

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  • Devis Geron
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the welfare effects of the Italian social security system in an economy with uncertainty on wages, financial market returns and life expectancy. The introduction of a pension system reproducing the Italian statutory scheme turns out to decrease ex-ante individual welfare, unless restrictions are assumed on retirement behavior. Overall, risk insurance effects of social security play a minor role in determining welfare variations. The new Italian NDC pension system is shown to yield a slight ex-ante welfare improvement from a purely risk-insurance perspective. This relative gain stems from risk diversification across working-life wages in computing benefits.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-10/cesifo1_wp2812.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2812.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2812

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    Keywords: social security reforms; uncertainty; risk insurance;

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    1. Enders, Walter & Lapan, Harvey E, 1982. "Social Security Taxation and Intergenerational Risk Sharing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 647-58, October.
    2. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2001. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow Debreu and Rawls with Applications to Social Security Design," Economics Working Paper Archive 478, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1985. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," NBER Working Papers 1682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Piero Gottardi & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Social Security and Risk Sharing," Working Papers 2006_38, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Nicola Sartor & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounts for Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 299-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Zvi Bodie & John B. Shoven, 1983. "Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bodi83-1.
    8. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2003. "Pareto Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete?," NBER Working Papers 9410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nicola Sartor, 2001. "The Long-run Effects of the Italian Pension Reforms," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 83-111, January.
    10. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 5090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Warshawsky, Mark J, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 135-54, February.
    12. Queisser, Monika & Whitehouse, Edward, 2005. "Pensions at a glance: public policies across OECD countries," MPRA Paper 10907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Giovanni Guazzarotti & Pietro Tommasino, 2008. "The Annuity Market in an Evolving Pension System: Lessons from Italy," CeRP Working Papers 77, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    16. Raquel Fonseca & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2005. "Welfare Effects of Social Security Reforms Across Europe : the Case of France and Italy," CSEF Working Papers 138, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    17. Agar Brugiavini & Erich Battistin, & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2007. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," Working Papers 2007_27, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    18. Raffaele Miniaci & Chiara Monfardini & Guglielmo Weber, 2003. "Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in Italy?," IFS Working Papers W03/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
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