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The International Financial Market and U.S. Interest Rates

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Author Info
David G. Hartman
Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between the Eurodollar and U.S. domestic financial markets. Despite the fact that these markets are characterized by rapid arbitrage of interest rate differentials, it is shown that using weekly data allows the isolation of significant fluctuations being transmitted between markets in both directions. That is, financial markets in the U.S. are affected significantly by foreign events and the Eurodollar market is significantly affected by events occurring in the U.S. Since a moderate amount of arbitrage occurs within a week's time and because there is no way to determine the source of any disturbances which affect both interest rates simultaneously, it is impossible to reach precise conclusions about the causes of historical variation in the rates. However, this paper provides evidence that at most forty percent of the variation in Eurodollar interest rates over the 1975-1978 period can be traced to domestic U.S. sources and that between about one-fifth and two-thirds of the variation in domestic rates can be traced to foreign sources.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0598.

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Date of creation: Jun 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0598

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  1. Kwack, Sung Y, 1971. "The Structure of International Interest Rates: An Extension of Hendershott's Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 897-900, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert Aliber, 1978. "The integration of National financial markets: A review of theory and findings," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 448-480, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jacobs, Rodney L & Leamer, Edward E & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "Difficulties with Testing for Causation," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 401-13, July.
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  6. Rodney H. Mills, Jr., 1973. "Structural change in the Eurodollar market: evidence from a two- equation model," International Finance Discussion Papers 33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Chung Lee, 1977. "A Survey of the literature on the determinants of foreign portfolio investments in the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 552-569, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?," NBER Working Papers 1773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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