Experience, Vintage and Time Effects in the Growth of Earnings: AmericanScientists, 1960-1970
AbstractThis paper is concerned with the growth of individual earnings over time. Four aspects of time are distinguished: experience, age, vintage and calendar year. The first section of the paper provides a brief outline of a theory of planned growth in earnings. The second and main section of the paper is devoted to an empirical attempt to estimate the role of experience, vintage and age on the growth in earnings and to separate these effects from exogenous changes in market conditions. We present a detailed specification of the earnings function which accounts for the inherent multi-collinearity between variables such as time, vintage and experience. One of our main objectives is to point out the implications of this identification problem for the analysis of earnings data. Though we cannot completely eliminate this difficulty, longitudinal data, which follows the same individuals over a period of time, allows us to identify more aspects of time than one could obtain from a single cross section. We provide a descriptive analysis of the exogenous changes in market conditions occurring during the period. No attempt is made to relate them to causal changes, such as past and expected future enrollment and government research grants. We find two basic tendencies: (1) Over the decade as a whole, scientists in academic institutions enjoyed better market conditions and thus a higher growth rate than those employed in private industry. (2) Toward the end of the decade, there is a marked reduction in the market's contribution to the growth rate. In some fields, such as physics, we note an actual reduction in the real earnings of new entrants. We conclude with a brief discussion of the changes in relative earnings over the decade by field and type of employer.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0138.
Date of creation: May 1976
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Weiss, Yoram & Lillard, Lee A, 1978. "Experience, Vintage, and Time Effects in the Growth of Earnings: American Scientists, 1960-1970," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(3), pages 427-47, June.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Welch, Finis, 1973. "Black-White Differences in Returns to Schooling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 893-907, December.
- Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352.
- Blinder, Alan S & Weiss, Yoram, 1976.
"Human Capital and Labor Supply: A Synthesis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 449-72, June.
- Alan S. Blinder & Yoram Weiss, 1975. "Human Capital and Labor Supply: A Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 0067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Blinder & Yoram Weiss, 1974. "Human Capital and Labor Supply: A Synthesis," Working Papers 435, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Johnson, George E & Stafford, Frank P, 1974. "Lifetime Earnings in a Professional Labor Market: Academic Economists," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 549-69, May/June.
- Mark Huggett, 2003.
"Human Capital and Earnings Distribution Dynamics,"
gueconwpa~03-03-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- George J. Borjas & Jacob Mincer, 1976. "The Distribution of Earnings Profiles in Longitudinal Data," NBER Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:1999069 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura & Amir Yaron, 2007.
"Sources of Lifetime Inequality,"
gueconwpa~07-07-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura & Amir Yaron, 2010. "Sources of Lifetime Inequality," Working Papers 2011-020, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
- Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura & Amir Yaron, 2007. "Sources of Lifetime Inequality," NBER Working Papers 13224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2099069 is not listed on IDEAS
- Weinberg, Bruce A., 2004. "Experience and Technology Adoption," IZA Discussion Papers 1051, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Clifford Clogg, 1982. "Cohort Analysis of Recent Trends in Labor Force Participation," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 459-479, November.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.