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Educational Attainment and the Changing U.S. Wage Structure: Dynamic Implications on Young Individuals' Choices

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  • Moshe Buchinsky
  • Phillip Leslie

Abstract

We present a dynamic model of individuals' educational investments that allows us to explore alternative modeling strategies for forecasting future wage distributions. The key innovation we propose is an approach to forecasting that relies only on the information that would be available at the actual time decisions are made and which incorporates the role of parameter uncertainty into the decision-making process. We compare the performance of our method with alternative models of forecasting behavior, based on CPS data over the period 1964-2004. (c) 2010 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Labor Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 541-594

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:28:y:2010:i:3:p:541-594

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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JOLE/

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Cited by:
  1. Basit Zafar, 2011. "Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? evidence on cognitive biases," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 520-544, 04.
  2. Courtioux, Pierre & Gregoir, Stéphane & Houeto, Dede, 2014. "Modelling the distribution of returns on higher education: A microsimulation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 328-340.
  3. Beffy, Magali & Fougère, Denis & Maurel, Arnaud, 2009. "Choosing the Field of Study in Post-Secondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 4127, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Michelle L. Barnes & Anthony W. Hughes, 2002. "A quantile regression analysis of the cross section of stock market returns," Working Papers 02-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2005. "Earnings Functions, Rates of Return and Treatment Effects: The Mincer Equation and Beyond," NBER Working Papers 11544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stacey H. Chen, 2003. "Risk Aversion and College Attendance," Discussion Papers 03-03, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  7. Alexander Whalley, 2004. "Black-White Differences in the Insurance Value of Human Capital," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 575, Econometric Society.

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