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Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?

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Author Info
Viv Hall () (Victoria University of Wellington)
Angela Huang () (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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Abstract

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core FPS model show how New Zealand's broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced. Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s. These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 03_14.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:03_14

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Related research
Keywords: Common currency; monetary policy; deterministic simulation; New Zealand; Australia; United States;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrew Coleman, 2001. "Three Perspectives on an Australasian Monetary Union," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nils Bjorksten, 2001. "The current state of New Zealand monetary union research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Macroeconomics 0509020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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