Rating Forecasts for Television Programs
AbstractThis paper investigates the effect of aggregation and non-linearity in relation to television rating forecasts. Several linear models for aggregated and disaggregated television viewing have appeared in the literature. The current analysis extends this work using an empirical approach. We compare the accuracy of population rating models, segment rating models and individual viewing behaviour models. Linear and non-linear models are fitted using regression, decision trees and neural networks, with a two-stage procedure being used to model network choice and viewing time for the individual viewing behaviour model. The most accurate forecast results are obtained from the non-linear segment rating models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 1/05.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
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Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CUL-2005-06-03 (Cultural Economics)
- NEP-DCM-2005-04-09 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ECM-2005-04-04 (Econometrics)
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