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State-Dependent Choice Model for TV Programs with Externality: Analysis of Viewing Behavior

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  • Keita Kinjo
  • Takeshi Ebina

Abstract

This study analyzes TV program content for viewers with respect to the following three properties: primary utility (intrinsic value by genre, cast, and so on), macro externality, such as the effect of others' past behavior (audience ratings), and state dependence, or the viewer's past actions that determine whether to watch the program. Focusing on the effects of macro externality and state-dependence on viewer behavior, the authors construct a hierarchical Bayesian model and derive an individual utility function. Applying their method to the choice of TV programs in Japan, they estimate the effects of macro externality and state dependence on an individual's viewing behavior, and illustrate the distribution of these effects. The authors find that macro externality has a strong overall effect on the total number of viewers and the state-dependence effect has a slightly positive effect. Moreover, comparing the attributes revealed that male viewers tend to show a lower effect of ratings and higher state dependence than females. They find that the older the viewers are, the higher the effect of state dependence. Further, using utility function data obtained by our estimation, they conduct a simulation to measure the dynamic effects of macro externality and state dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Keita Kinjo & Takeshi Ebina, 2015. "State-Dependent Choice Model for TV Programs with Externality: Analysis of Viewing Behavior," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 20-40, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jmedec:v:28:y:2015:i:1:p:20-40
    DOI: 10.1080/08997764.2014.997242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Denny Meyer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "Rating Forecasts for Television Programs," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Oz Shy, 1996. "Industrial Organization: Theory and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262691795, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Clark & Jean-François Paiement & Foster Provost, 2023. "Who’s Watching TV?," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1622-1640, December.
    2. Eunhye Yoo & Jeong-Hui Park & Jung-Min Lee, 2021. "The Experience and Meaning of Media to Non-Mainstream Athletes: Qualitative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Kinjo Keita & Sugawara Shinya, 2016. "Predicting Empirical Patterns in Viewing Japanese TV Dramas Using Case-Based Decision Theory," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 679-709, June.
    4. Keita Kinjo & Shinya Sugawara, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis for a Case-based Decision to Watch Japanese TV dramas," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-940, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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