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Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models

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Author Info
SILVESTRINI, Andrea
VEREDAS, David

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Abstract

In this paper we feature state-of-the-art econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for univariate linear time series, namely ARIMA-GARCH models. We present a unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes and we explain in detail, although intuitively, the technical machinery behind the results. An empirical application with Belgian public deficit data illustrates the main issues.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2005059.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2005059

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Related research
Keywords: temporal aggregation; ARIMA; GARCH; seasonality;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April. [Downloadable!]
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, SŽbastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Clive Granger & Tae-Hwy Lee, 1999. "The effect of aggregation on nonlinearity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 259-269. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Time-scale transformations of discrete time processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 873-894, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Weiss, Andrew A., 1984. "Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-281, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Palm, Franz C & Nijman, Theo E, 1984. "Missing Observations in the Dynamic Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1415-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. HAFNER, Christian & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Estimation of temporally aggregated multivariate GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2003073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C, 1990. "Predictive Accuracy Gain from Disaggregate Sampling in ARIMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(4), pages 405-15, October.
  11. Christian M. Hafner, 2004. "Temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 538, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Yue Fang & Sergio G. Koreisha, 2004. "Updating ARMA predictions for temporal aggregates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 275-296. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-14, July.
  15. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. William W. S. Wei, 1978. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Seasonal Time Series Models," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 433-448 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  17. MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France," CORE Discussion Papers 2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  18. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  19. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "On the Estimation of Nonlinearly Aggregated Mixed Models," Econometrics 0411012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  20. Luiz Hotta & Pedro Pereira & Rissa Ota, 2004. "Effect of outliers on forecasting temporally aggregated flow variables," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 371-402, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrea Silvestrini & Matteo Salto & Laurent Moulin & David Veredas, 2008. "Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 493-524, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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