Simulation-Based Bayesian Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models

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Simulation-Based Bayesian Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models

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Andrew D. Sanford
Gael M. Martin ()

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Gael Margaret Martin

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the application of Bayesian simulation-based estimation to a class of interest rate models known as Affine Term Structure (ATS) models. The technique used is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, with the discrete observations on yields augmented by additional higher frequency latent data. The introduction of augmented yield data reduces the bias associated with estimating a continuous time model using discretely observed data. The technique is demon-strated using a one-factor ATS model, with the latent factor process that underlies the yields sampled via a single-move algorithm. Numerical application of the method is demonstrated using both simulated and empirical data. Extension of the method to a three-factor ATS model is also discussed, as well as the application of a multi-move sampler based on a Kalman Filtering and Smoothing algorithm.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 15/03.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2003-15

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-CMP-2003-09-28 (Computational Economics)
NEP-ECM-2003-09-28 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2003-09-28 (Econometric Time Series)
NEP-FIN-2003-09-28 (Finance)
NEP-RMG-2003-09-28 (Risk Management)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Pagan, A.R., 1996. "Simulation Based Estimation of Some Factor Models in Econometrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 521, The University of Melbourne.
Konstantijn Maes & Konstantijn Maes, 2003. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie008, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August. [Downloadable!]
Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
Other versions:
- Elerian, O. & Chib, S. & Shephard, N., 1998. "Likelihood INference for Discretely Observed Non-linear Diffusions," Economics Papers 146, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Ola Elerian & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Likelihood inference for discretely observed non-linear diffusions," OFRC Working Papers Series 2000mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
Gregory R. Duffee, 2000. "Term premia and interest rate forecasts in affine models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Babbs, Simon H. & Nowman, K. Ben, 1999. "Kalman Filtering of Generalized Vasicek Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 115-130, March. [Downloadable!]
repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Eraker, Bjorn, 2001. "MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 177-91, April.
David Jamieson Bolder, 2001. "Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation," Working Papers 01-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Andrew D. Sanford & Gael Martin, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Continuous Time Models of the Australian Short Rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]

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