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What Causes Labor-Market Volatility? The Role of Finance and Welfare State Institutions

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    Abstract

    Using fixed effects panel data models on a sample of 15 OECD countries over the period 1970-2007, this article explores the linkages between labor-market volatility, financial development and welfare state institutions. We analyze the interacted impact of financial development on the one hand and welfare state institutions (i.e., overall social spending) on the other hand on volatility of hours worked and volatility of wages. Our results indicate that financial development is associated with higher volatility on labor-markets. Estimates of the marginal effects show that overall social spending increasingly reduces labor-market volatility with the degree of financial development, and more specifically for low-skilled workers through compensation mechanisms. Finally, we control for potential reversed causality by running IV-GMM estimations suggesting that increasing financial development has not threatened the governments' ability to play an active role in cushioning fluctuations on labor markets.

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    File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2013/13070.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 13070.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:13070

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    Keywords: Labor-market volatility; financial development; social security expenditure; compensation hypothesis.;

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    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/GMM estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 667, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Sep 2007.
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    4. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-68, November.
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    7. Giuseppe Bertola, 2007. "Finance and Welfare States in Globalising Markets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Stephanie Meinhard & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "The Globalization–Welfare State Nexus Reconsidered," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 271-287, 05.
    9. Bruno Amable & Donatella Gatti & Jan Schumacher, 2006. "Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 426-444, Autumn.
    10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00716859 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    12. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2000. "The Political Economy of Labour Market Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293323, Octomber.
    13. Marco Pagano & Giovanni Pica, 2012. "Finance and employment," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 5-55, 01.
    14. Adeline Saillard, 2012. "The role of complementarity and the financial liberalization in the financial crisis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12038, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
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