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Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms

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Author Info
Alexander Ludwig () (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of demographic change for economic growth in di®erent countries. Quantitative projections are based on a multi-country over- lapping generations model that is augmented with actual demographic data and pro- jections for di®erent OECD regions. According to the simulation results, per capita incomes decline substantially when aging processes peak in some regions and di®er- ences between regions are quite large. Additional capital formation and increases in labor supply resulting from a fundamental pension reform are found to mitigate but not to solve the problem.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 05094.

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Date of creation: 30 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05094

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Postal: MEA - Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel, L13, 17, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim
Phone: +49/621/181.1862
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Web page: http://www.mea.uni-mannheim.de/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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  1. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Skinner, Jonathan, 1983. "The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 81-100, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," MEA discussion paper series 04064, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alexander Ludwig, 2004. "Improving tatonnement methods for solving heterogenous agent models," 2004 Meeting Papers 498, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  6. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Andrews, Donald W K & McDermott, C John, 1995. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(3), pages 343-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1999. "Migration and pension with international capital mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-150, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  11. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  13. David Altig et al., 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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