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Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms

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  • Alexander Ludwig

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of demographic change for economic growth in di®erent countries. Quantitative projections are based on a multi-country over- lapping generations model that is augmented with actual demographic data and pro- jections for di®erent OECD regions. According to the simulation results, per capita incomes decline substantially when aging processes peak in some regions and di®er- ences between regions are quite large. Additional capital formation and increases in labor supply resulting from a fundamental pension reform are found to mitigate but not to solve the problem.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 05094.

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Date of creation: 30 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05094

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Postal: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München, Germany
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  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-, September.
  2. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Skinner, Jonathan, 1983. "The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 81-100, February.
  4. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1993. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1053, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  9. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January.
  10. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  11. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1999. "Migration and pension with international capital mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-150, October.
  12. Ludwig, Alexander, 2004. "Improving Tatonnement Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Agent Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  13. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  14. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  15. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Schimke, Antje, 2014. "Aging workforce and firm growth in the context of "extreme" employment growth events," Working Paper Series in Economics 54, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  2. Schimke, Antje, 2012. "Entrepreneurial aging and employment growth in the context of extreme growth events," Working Paper Series in Economics 39, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  3. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.

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