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Unemployment persistence in Italy. An econometric analysis with multivariate time varying parameter models

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This paper investigates the causes of unemployment persistence in Italy, using aggregate quarterly data. We use as reference an insider-outsider model capable of generating hysteresis. In the sample period being analysed, deep structural modifications have affected the Italian economy. For this reason, we work with a time varying parameter reduced form model, experimenting alternative parameter evolution schemes. In this way we are able to describe the dynamic effects on employment, participation and real wages of several phenomena, such as changes in the monetary and fiscal policy indicators and variations in unemployment benefits and labour taxes.

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Paper provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its series LIUC Papers in Economics with number 121.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:121

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  1. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  2. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
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  4. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  5. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
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  7. C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment : Unemployment, Capital Accumulation and Factor Prices," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GL28.
  11. Tito Boeri & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, . "Regulation and Labour Market Performance," Working Papers 158, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  12. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  13. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Balmaseda, M & Dolado, J-J & Lopez-Salido, D, 1996. "Hysteresis and the Sources of Shocks : A Cross-Country Analysis," Papers 9614, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
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