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Unemployment persistence in Italy. An econometric analysis with multivariate time varying parameter models

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Author Info
Gianni Amisano () (Brescia University)
Massimiliano Serati () (Cattaneo University (LIUC))
Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of unemployment persistence in Italy, using aggregate quarterly data. We use as reference an insider-outsider model capable of generating hysteresis. In the sample period being analysed, deep structural modifications have affected the Italian economy. For this reason, we work with a time varying parameter reduced form model, experimenting alternative parameter evolution schemes. In this way we are able to describe the dynamic effects on employment, participation and real wages of several phenomena, such as changes in the monetary and fiscal policy indicators and variations in unemployment benefits and labour taxes.

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Paper provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its series LIUC Papers in Economics with number 121.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:liu:liucec:121

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  1. Olivier Blanchard, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment: Unemployment, Capital Accumulation, and Factor Prices," NBER Working Papers 6566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Boeri, Tito & Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2000. "Regulation And Labour Market Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 2420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., . "Layard-Nickell," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics layardnickell, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 47-104, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Nickell, Stephen, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Balmaseda, M & Dolado, J-J & Lopez-Salido, D, 1996. "Hysteresis and the Sources of Shocks : A Cross-Country Analysis," Papers 9614, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  10. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  11. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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