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Financial Liberalization and Volatility in Emerging Market Economies

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Author Info
Philippe AGHION
Philippe BACCHETTA
Abhijit BANERJEE

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Abstract

The recent East Asian crisis has highlighted the relationship between financial development and output volatility. In this essay we develop a simple model of a small open economy producing a tradeable good using a non-tradeable input and where firms access to borrowings and investment depends on current cash flows. We then show, first that macroeconomic volatility only occurs at intermediate levels of financial development; second, that whilst full financial liberalization, including an unrestricted opening to foreign lending, can destabilize an emerging market economy, in contrast output volatility can be avoided if the same economy opens up to foreign direct investment only. We also draw several policy conclusions regarding the adequate responses to financial crises.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 9811.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jul 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Asian Financial Crises : Causes, Contagion and Consequences, Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp. 167-190 (published under the wrong title "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies")
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9811

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications-english/e-cahiers.htm

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Related research
Keywords: emerging markets; volatility; financial liberalization;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," Working Papers 98.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Corbo, Vittorio & de Melo, Jaime & Tybout, James, 1986. "What Went Wrong with the Recent Reforms in the Southern Cone," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(3), pages 607-40, April.
  3. Razin, A & Sadka, E & Yuen, C-W, 1997. "A Pecking Order of Capital Inflows and International Tax Principles," Papers 12-97, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
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  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997. "Dualism and macroeconomic volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9720, CEPREMAP.
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  6. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  8. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Aghion, P. & Hart, O. & Moore, J., 1992. "The Economics of Bankruptcy Reform," Working papers 92-11, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Abdol S. Soofi & Liangyue Cao, 2001. "Capital Account Liberalization, Currency Markets' Volatility and Prediction: Financial Implications of the P.R. of China's Accession to the WTO," Finance Working Papers 218, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Scott, A. & Uhlig, H., 1998. "Fickle investors : an impediment to growth?," Discussion Paper 134, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kharroubi, E., 2006. "Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship," Documents de Travail 139, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Dekle & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2001. "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia," NBER Working Papers 8322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Tarek Coury, 2002. "Trade Openness, Investment Instability and Terms-of-Trade Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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