Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?

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Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?

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Carl-Johan Dalgaard (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Lennart Erickson (International Monetary Fund)

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Carl-Johan Dalgaard

Abstract

While a political consensus has emerged to increase aid flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, empirical studies of the effectiveness of aid in stimulating growth and reducing poverty have yet to yield conclusive results. The present paper takes a different approach. Using the standard neoclassical growth model, we ask how much should be expected from aid a priori. Using a range of different parameter values and model specifications, we address three questions. (i) How much growth should aid flows have produced in Sub-Saharan Africa over the last 3 decades? (ii) How much aid would be needed to attain the First Millennium Development Goal (MDG#1) of cutting poverty in half by 2015? (iii) Taking proposed aid flows as given, how much would structural characteristics, such as domestic savings rates and productivity, have to change in order to reach the MDG#1? Our analysis indicates that, even under optimistic assumptions for the effectiveness of aid, past and future expectations for aid in fostering growth and poverty reduction have been too high.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 07-18.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0718

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
NEP-DEV-2007-09-16 (Development)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, inequality, and poverty : looking beyond averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2558, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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