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Saving Transitions

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  • Dani Rodrik

Abstract

This article takes a systematic cross-national approach to identifying saving transitions-defined as sustained increases in the saving rate of 5 percentage points or more-to study their determinants and to reexamine the question of causality between growth and saving. Countries that undergo saving transitions do not necessarily experience sustained increases in their growth rates. In fact, growth rates typically return to their levels before the transition within a decade. By contrast, countries that undergo growth transition-arising from improved terms of trade, increased domestic investment, or other sources-do end up with permanently higher saving rates. Hence saving transitions do not appear to be causal with respect to superior economic performance. Copyright The Author 2000. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Bank Group in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 481-507

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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:481-507

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Cited by:
  1. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Erickson, Lennart, 2009. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1170-1181, July.
  2. Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Poverty traps, aid, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-347, March.
  3. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
  4. Tang, Chor Foon, 2009. "Does causality technique matter to savings-growth nexus in Malaysia?," MPRA Paper 38535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Peter J. Montiel & Luis Servén, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is there a Link?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-18, Department of Economics, Williams College.

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