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Goals for development : history, prospects and costs

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  • Devarajan, Shantayanan
  • Miller, Margaret J.
  • Swanson, Eric V.
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    Abstract

    The Millennium Development Goals set quantitative targets for poverty reduction and improvements in health, education, gender equality, the environment, and other aspects of human welfare. At existing rates of progress many countries will fall short of these goals. However, if developing countries take steps to improve their policies and increased financial resources are made available, significant additional progress toward the goals is possible. The suthors provide a preliminary estimate of the additional financial resources which would be required if countries would work vigorously toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Two estimates of the resource gap are developed, one by estimating the additional resources necessary to increase economic growth so as to reduce income poverty, the other by estimating the cost of meeting specific goals in health, education, and the environment. Both estimates yield a figure in the range of $40-$70 billion in additional assistance per year, which is in line with estimates from other international development agencies and which would roughly represent a doubling of official aid flows over 2000 levels. While the authors believe this is a reasonable first approximation of the costs associated with achieving the Millennium Development Goals, it should be interpreted with caution for several reasons, including the lack of empirical data in many countries to estimate the relationship between expenditures on health or education and related outcomes, or the relationship between investment and growth, the sensitivity of the results to changes in the policy environment (both at the macroeconomic and sector level, and with respect to international trade), and opportunities for increased-and more efficient-domestic resource mobilization.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2819.

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    Date of creation: 30 Apr 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2819

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    Keywords: Early Child and Children's Health; Public Health Promotion; Decentralization; Health Economics&Finance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Poverty Assessment; Health Economics&Finance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Early Child and Children's Health; Earth Sciences&GIS;

    References

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    1. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    2. Lawrence Haddad & Harold Alderman & Simon Appleton & Lina Song & Yisehac Yohannes, 2003. "Reducing Child Malnutrition: How Far Does Income Growth Take Us?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(1), pages 107-131, June.
    3. Easterly, William, 1999. "The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 423-438, December.
    4. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2000. "Can the world cut poverty in half ? how policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2403, The World Bank.
    6. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank.
    7. Bidani, Benu & Ravallion, Martin, 1995. "Decomposing social indicators using distributional data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1487, The World Bank.
    8. Filmer, Deon & Hammer, Jeffrey S & Pritchett, Lant H, 2000. "Weak Links in the Chain: A Diagnosis of Health Policy in Poor Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, August.
    9. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Measuring aggregate welfare in developing countries - How well do national accounts and surveys agree?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2665, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:
    1. Adil Najam & Cutler Cleveland, 2003. "Energy and Sustainable Development at Global Environmental Summits: An Evolving Agenda," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 117-138, March.
    2. Michael Clemens, 2004. "The Long Walk to School: International Education Goals in Historical Perspective," Working Papers 37, Center for Global Development.
    3. Markandya, Anil & Setboonsarng, Sununtar & Hui, Qiao Yu & Songkranok, Rachanee & Stefan, Adam, 2010. "The Costs of Achieving the Millennium Development Goals through Adopting Organic Agriculture," ADBI Working Papers 193, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Fan, Shenggen & Johnson, Michael & Saurkar, Anuja & Makombe, Tsitsi, 2008. "Investing in African agriculture to halve poverty by 2015:," IFPRI discussion papers 751, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. World Bank, 2005. "Ethiopia : Well-Being and Poverty in Ethiopia, The Role of Agriculture and Agency," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8707, The World Bank.
    6. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Lennart Erickson, 2007. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," Discussion Papers 07-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Caren A. Grown & Chandrika Bahadur & Jessie Handbury & Diane Elson, 2006. "The Financial Requirements of Achieving Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_467, Levy Economics Institute, The.
    8. Michael A. Clemens & Charles J. Kenny & Todd J. Moss, 2004. "The Trouble with the MDGs: Confronting Expectations of Aid and Development Success," Working Papers 40, Center for Global Development.
    9. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2006. "Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges," MPRA Paper 1815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Baulch, Bob, 2006. "Aid distribution and the MDGs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 933-950, June.
    11. Nwachukwu, Jacinta, 2011. "Halving poverty in HIPC countries by 2015: How costly if achievable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 213-225, March.
    12. Renate Schubert & Julia Blasch & Kristin Hoffmann, 2007. "Environmental Protection, Energy Policy and Poverty Reduction – Synergies of an Integrated Approach," IED Working paper 07-01, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    13. Barbara Bruns & Alain Mingat & Ramahatra Rakotomalala, 2003. "Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015 : A Chance for Every Child," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15121, January.

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