The Return to Foreign Aid
AbstractThis paper investigates the marginal productivity of investment in the world’s poorest economies. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid as well as by domestic resource mobilization, using crosscountry aggregate data. In practice the return on both investment categories can be expected to vary considerably across countries and time. As a consequence we develop a correlated random coefficients approach to the issue at hand, which allows us to estimate the average aggregate rate of return on “aid investments” and “domestic investments”. Across a wide array of estimators our principal finding is remarkably robust; the average aggregate gross return on “aid investments” falls in a 20-30 percent range, roughly the same as the return on investments funded by other sources than aid. This finding is well in accord with micro estimates of the economic return to aid.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 05-04.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
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productivity; foreign aid; random coefficients; panel data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
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- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2001.
"On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
03-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
- Finn Tarp, 2006.
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06-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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- Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Erickson, Lennart, 2009.
"Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1170-1181, July.
- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Lennart Erickson, 2007. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," Discussion Papers 07-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Salifou Issoufou & Edward F. Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 14/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2011. "Aid Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 13/261, International Monetary Fund.
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