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Do Both U.S. and Foreign Macro Surprises Matter for the Intraday Exchange Rate? Evidence from Japan

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Author Info
Rasmus Fatum (University of Alberta)
Michael Hutchison (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Thomas Wu (University of California, Santa Cruz)

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Abstract

We investigate the effects of both U.S. and Japanese news surprises, measured as the difference between macroeconomic announcements and preceding survey expectations, on the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate. No previous study has considered the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate responses to a broad set of comparable news surprises from both the U.S. and Japan. We show that news surprises from Japan are as influential as those from the U.S. in moving 5-minute JPY/USD exchange rate returns and, therefore, focusing on U.S. news while disregarding foreign news misses half the story. Our results also show that distinguishing between positive and negative news surprises and the state of the Japanese business cycle is important in understanding the link between exchange rates and news.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 2009-01.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2009
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:09-01

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign Exchange Rates; Intraday Data; Macroeconomic News Effects;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2008. "Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1076-1086, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2007. "Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 13010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bauwens, Luc & Ben Omrane, Walid & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1108-1125, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1996. "One Day in June 1993: A Study of the Working of the Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 107-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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