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Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar

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  • Kubo, Koji

Abstract

In the five-year period from 2006 to 2011, the real exchange rate of the Myanmar kyat appreciated 200 percent, signifying that the value of the US dollar in Myanmar diminished to one third of its previous level. While the resource boom is suspected as a source of the real exchange rate appreciation, its aggravation is related to administrative controls on foreign exchange and imports. First, foreign exchange controls prevented replacement of the negotiated transactions of foreign exchange with the bank intermediation. This hampered government interventions in the market. Second, import controls repressed imports, aggravating excess supply of foreign exchange. Relaxation of administrative controls is necessary for moderating currency appreciation.

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File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/1164/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.358_kubo.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 358.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 358. 2012.7
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper358

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Keywords: Myanmar; Foreign exchange; Exchange control; Trade policy; Imports; Real exchange rate; Resource boom; Import controls;

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  1. Sean TURNELL, 2011. "Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 136-153, 06.
  2. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  3. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  4. Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2008. "Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 08/199, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Usui, Norio, 1996. "Policy adjustments to the oil boom and their evaluation: The Dutch disease in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 887-900, May.
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
  7. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
  8. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Kudo, Toshihiro, 2013. "Myanmar's apparel industry in the new international environment : prospects and challenges," IDE Discussion Papers 430, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  2. Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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