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Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

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  • Kubo, Koji

Abstract

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004–2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper426
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    Cited by:

    1. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Lar, Ni, 2015. "FDI, industrial upgrading and economic corridor in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 64411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Naylin Oo, 2015. "The implementation of small and medium-sized enterprise development in rice sector of Myanmar: empirical research findings," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 22(1), pages 99-141, June.
    4. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2021. "Manufacturing exports after the lifting of economic sanctions in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 107956, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; International trade; Economic sanctions; Exports; Gravity model; Dutch disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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