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Equilibrium Simulation with Microeconometric Models: A New Procedure with an Application to Income Support Policies

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  • Colombino, Ugo

    ()
    (University of Turin)

Abstract

Many microeconometric models of discrete labour supply include alternative-specific constants meant to account for (possibly besides other factors) the density or accessibility of particular types of jobs (e.g. part-time jobs vs. full-time jobs). The most common use of these models is the simulation of tax-transfer reforms. The simulation is usually interpreted as a comparative statics exercise, i.e. the comparison of different equilibria induced by different policy regimes. The simulation procedure, however, typically keeps fixed the estimated alternative-specific constants. In this note we argue that this procedure is not consistent with the comparative statics interpretation. Since the constants reflect the number of jobs and since the number of people willing to work changes as a response to the change in tax-transfer regime, the new equilibrium induced by the reform implies that the constants should also change. A structural interpretation of the alternative-specific constants leads to the development of a simulation procedure consistent with the comparative statics interpretation. The procedure is illustrated with a simulation of alternative reforms of the income support policies in Italy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6679.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6679

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Keywords: alternative-specific constants; policy simulation; labour supply; discrete choice; random utility; equilibrium simulation;

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References

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  1. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Steinar Strøm, 2004. "Do more equal slices shrink the cake? An empirical investigation of tax-transfer reform proposals in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 767-785, December.
  2. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2010. "Accounting for family background when designing optimal income taxes: A microeconometric simulation analysis," Working Papers 157, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  3. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Massimo Baldini & Stefano Toso & Paolo Bosi, 2002. "Targeting welfare in Italy: old problems and perspectives on reform," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 51-75, March.
  5. Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strom, Steinar, 1999. "Labour Supply in Italy: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Household Decisions, with Taxes and Quantity Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 403-22, July-Aug..
  6. John K. Dagsvik & Steinar Strøm, 2004. "Sectoral Labor Supply, Choice Restrictions and Functional Form," Discussion Papers 388, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  7. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2008. "Designing Optimal Taxes with a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," ICER Working Papers 19-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  8. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
  9. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2005. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 277-290, September.
  10. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  11. John K. Dagsvik, 1996. "Aggregation in Matching Markets," Discussion Papers 173, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  12. Colombino, Ugo & Locatelli, Marilena & Narazani, Edlira & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2010. "Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms: An Evaluation Exercise with a Microeconometric Model," IZA Discussion Papers 4781, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Claudio DE VINCENTI & Ruggero PALADINI, 2009. "Personal Income Tax Design for Italy: Lessons from the Theory," Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, SIE - Societa' Italiana degli Economisti (I), vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2013. "What’s best for women: gender based taxation, wage subsidies or basic income?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2012. "What's Best for Women: Gender Based Taxation, Wage Subsidies or Basic Income?," IZA Discussion Papers 6828, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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