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Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment: A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions

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  • Schmillen, Achim

    ()
    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

  • Möller, Joachim

    ()
    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

Abstract

The empirical literature on unemployment almost exclusively focuses on the duration of distinct unemployment spells. In contrast, we use a large German administrative micro data set for the time span 1975-2004 to investigate individual lifetime unemployment (defined as the total length of all unemployment spells over a 25-year period). This new perspective enables us to answer questions regarding the long-term distribution and determinants of unemployment for West German birth cohorts 1950-1954. We find that lifetime unemployment is highly unevenly distributed and employ censored quantile regressions to show that, for men, pursuing a disadvantageous occupation early in the professional career leads to a significantly higher amount of lifetime unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4751.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as "Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment" in: Labour Economics, 2012, 19 (1), 33-47
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4751

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Related research

Keywords: occupation-specific human capital; censored quantile regressions; lifetime unemployment;

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References

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  1. Elke Lüdemann & Ralf Wilke & Xuan Zhang, 2006. "Censored quantile regressions and the length of unemployment periods in West Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1003-1024, November.
  2. Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Jolliffe, Dean & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2008. "Censored Quantile Regression and Purchases of Ice Cream," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6534, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Sebastian Galiani & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2001. "Duration and Risk of Unemployment in Argentina," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 476, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Yannis Bilias & Roger Koenker, 2001. "Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 199-220.
  5. Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004. "Occupational Specificity of Human Capital," 2004 Meeting Papers 197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
  7. Hong H. & Chernozhukov V., 2002. "Three-Step Censored Quantile Regression and Extramarital Affairs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 872-882, September.
  8. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2006. "Imputation Rules to Improve the Education Variable in the IAB Employment Subsample," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(3), pages 405-436.
  9. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  10. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, October.
  11. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
  12. Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2004. "Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 205-237, 05.
  13. Jose A. F. Machado & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2008. "Quantiles for Fractions and Other Mixed Data," Economics Discussion Papers 656, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  14. Kruppe, Thomas & Müller, Eva & Wichert, Laura & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "On the definition of unemployment and its implementation in register data : the case of Germany," FDZ Methodenreport 200703_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  15. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1994. "Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure 1963-1987: Application of Quantile Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 405-58, March.
  16. Ludsteck, Johannes & Haupt, Harald, 2007. "An Empirical Test of the Reder Hypothesis," Discussion Papers in Economics 1397, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  17. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Münstermann, Leonard & Schneck, Stefan & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2012. "Die Bedeutung des Kurzarbeitergeldes im Mittelstand," IfM-Materialien 215, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
  2. Stops, Michael, 2011. "Job Matching on non-separated Occupational Labour Markets," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 49161, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2010. "R&D strategy of small and medium enterprises in India: Trends and determinants," MPRA Paper 20951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Stops, Michael, 2012. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," IAB Discussion Paper 201227, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  5. Tisch, Anita & Tophoven, Silke, 2011. "Erwerbseinstieg und bisheriges Erwerbsleben der deutschen Babyboomerkohorten 1959 und 1965 : Vorarbeiten zu einer Kohortenstudie," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201108, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2011. "Regional heterogeneity and firms’ innovation: the role of regional factors in industrial R&D in India," MPRA Paper 28096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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