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A Model of Overconfidence

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  • Weinberg, Bruce A.

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are more able than they are in fact. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output, however extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists have found that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous and that people maintain such beliefs by underweighting new information about their ability.

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  • Weinberg, Bruce A., 2009. "A Model of Overconfidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4285, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Heller, Yuval, 2010. "Overconfidence and risk dispersion," MPRA Paper 25893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sällström, Susanna & Sjogren, Anna, 2002. "Trapped, Delayed and Handicapped," CEPR Discussion Papers 3335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Filippin, Antonio & Paccagnella, Marco, 2012. "Family background, self-confidence and economic outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 824-834.
    4. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Daniel Hausmann, 2020. "Pre-Decisional Information Acquisition: Do We Pay TooMuch for Information?," Working Paper Series 2020-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    5. Danková, Katarína & Servátka, Maroš, 2019. "Gender robustness of overconfidence and excess entry," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-199.
    6. Jouini, Elyès & Karehnke, Paul & Napp, Clotilde, 2018. "Stereotypes, underconfidence and decision-making with an application to gender and math," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 34-45.
    7. Cacault, Maria Paula & Grieder, Manuel, 2019. "How group identification distorts beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 63-76.
    8. Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván & García-Gallego, Aurora & García-Segarra, Jaume & Ritschel, Alexander, 2022. "A gender bias in reporting expected ranks when performance feedback is at stake," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Yao Wang & Yinyin Han & Qiuxuan Du & Deshuai Hou, 2023. "Executive Overconfidence and Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Johannes Maier & Clemens König, 2016. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Belief Updating," CESifo Working Paper Series 6156, CESifo.
    11. Naomi Moy & Ho Fai Chan & Frank Mathmann & Markus Schaffner & Benno Torgler, 2021. "Confidence is good; too much, not so much: Exploring the effects on reward-based crowdfunding success," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-18, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    12. Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2008. "Rank expectations, feedback and social hierarchies," MPRA Paper 13428, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioral economics; information processing; overconfidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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