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A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

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Author Info

  • Staghøj, Jonas

    ()
    (Aarhus University)

  • Svarer, Michael

    ()
    (Aarhus University)

  • Rosholm, Michael

    ()
    (Aarhus University)

Abstract

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3165.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3165

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Related research

Keywords: heterogeneous effects; targeting; profiling; statistical treatment rules;

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References

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  1. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
  2. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 389-432, August.
  3. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December.
  4. Peter Jensen & Michael Svarer, 2003. "Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, January.
  5. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2004. "Estimating the Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," Economics Working Papers 2004-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
  7. Markus Frölich, 2006. "Statistical treatment choice: an application to active labour market programmes," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael & Steiger, Heidi, 2003. "Statistically assisted programme selection - International experiences and potential benefits for Switzerland," Working Paper Series 2004:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  9. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  10. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
  11. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer & Bo Hammer, 2004. "A Danish Profiling System," Economics Working Papers 2004-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Stephan, Gesine & Rässler, Susanne & Schewe, Torben, 2006. "Wirkungsanalyse in der Bundesagentur für Arbeit : Konzeption, Datenbasis und ausgewählte Befunde," IAB Discussion Paper 200607, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  13. Michael Lechner & Jeffrey Smith, 2003. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers 20031, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  14. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Profiling: Introduction to the Feature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages F347-F350, November.
  15. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
  16. Behncke, Stefanie & Frölich, Markus & Lechner, Michael, 2007. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from A Randomised Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Torben M. Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2007. "Flexicurity – labour market performance in Denmark," Economics Working Papers 2007-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  18. Bell, Stephen H. & Orr, Larry L., 2002. "Screening (and creaming?) applicants to job training programs: the AFDC homemaker-home health aide demonstrations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 279-301, April.
  19. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
  20. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  21. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2005. "Passenger Profiling, Imperfect Screening, and Airport Security," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  22. Christopher J. O'Leary & Paul Decker & Stephen A. Wandner, 2002. "Targeting Reemployment Bonuses," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 3005, Mathematica Policy Research.
  23. William C. Horrace & Peter Schmidt, 2000. "Multiple comparisons with the best, with economic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  24. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, 07.
  25. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  26. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey, 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535, October.
  27. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2009. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 221-268, September.
  2. Tomi Kyyrä & Pierpaolo Parrotta & Michael Rosholm, 2009. "The effect of receiving supplementary UI benefits on unemployment duration," Working Papers 1, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  3. Weber, Andrea, 2008. "Individual Incentives in Program Participation: Splitting up the Process in Assignment and Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 3404, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Torben Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2008. "Flexicurity in Denmark," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 15-20, December.

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