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Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?

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  • Peter Jensen
  • Michael Svarer

Abstract

In this paper, we provide new evidence on how to model unemployment durations in the presence of temporary layoffs. Two different types of econometric models are used: the multiple phase duration model and the competing risks model. Special attention is paid to the possibility of time-varying or non-proportional effects of the explanatory variables on the hazard function. The results show that instead of using the multiple phase duration model as an alternative to the competing risks model, it may be more fruitful to use it to extend the specification of the competing risks model. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Jensen & Michael Svarer, 2003. "Short- and long-term unemployment: How do temporary layoffs affect this distinction?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:1:p:23-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s001810100113
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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Albertini & Xavier Fairise, 2018. "Layoffs, recalls and experience rating," Working Papers halshs-01879560, HAL.
    2. Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael & Munch, Jakob Roland, 2005. "Rent control and unemployment duration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(11-12), pages 2165-2181, December.
    3. Rosholm, Michael & Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Hammer, Bo, 2006. "A Danish Profiling System," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2006(1), pages 209-229.
    4. Roed, Knut & Nordberg, Morten, 2003. "Temporary layoffs and the duration of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 381-398, June.
    5. Alfonso Alba & Jose Maria Arranz & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2012. "Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3645-3664, October.
    6. Rainer Eppel & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2017. "Die Auswirkungen temporärer Layoffs auf die weitere Erwerbskarriere der betroffenen Arbeitskräfte," WIFO Working Papers 539, WIFO.
    7. Albertini, Julien & Fairise, Xavier & Terriau, Anthony, 2023. "Unemployment insurance, recalls, and experience rating," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Danacica, Daniela Emanuela & Cirnu, Doru, 2014. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States of Disabled People in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 35-52, March.
    9. Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3165, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. J. Ignacio García‐Pérez & Fernando Muñoz‐Bullón, 2011. "Transitions into Permanent Employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis for Young Workers," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 103-143, March.
    11. Alba, Alfonso & Arranz, José M. & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2006. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits and recalls," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb066218, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    12. Jonas Staghøj & Michael Svarer & Michael Rosholm, 2010. "Choosing the Best Training Programme: Is there a Case for Statistical Treatment Rules?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(2), pages 172-201, April.
    13. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso & Arranz, Jose M. & Munoz-Bullon, Fernando, 2007. "Exits from unemployment: Recall or new job," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 788-810, October.
    14. Núria Rodríquez-Planas, 2011. "Displacement, Signaling, and Recall Expectations," Working Papers 550, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Obalade Adefemi Alamu & Ebiwonjumi Ayooluwade & Adaramola Anthony Olugbenga, 2019. "Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 73-88, June.
    16. Malo, Miguel A. & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2008. "Working career progress in the tourism industry : temp-to perm transitions in Spain," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb083510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    17. Anne Lauringson, 2011. "Disincentive effects of unemployment insurance benefits: maximum benefit duration versus benefit level," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 25-50, July.
    18. Rainer Eppel & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer & Christine Zulehner, 2015. "Temporäre Layoffs – Das kurzfristige Aussetzen von Arbeitsverhältnissen und seine Bedeutung für die Arbeitslosigkeit," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(12), pages 885-897, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Key words: unemployment durations; temporary layoffs; multiple phase duration model; competing risks model; JEL classification: C41; J64;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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