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The Fertility Effect of Catastrophe: U.S. Hurricane Births

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Author Info
Richard W. Evans () (University of Texas at Austin)
Yingyao Hu () (Johns Hopkins University)
Zhong Zhao () (IZA)

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Abstract

For years, anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties of the United States. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find that most of the changes in fertility resulting from storm advisories come from couples who have had at least one child already. In addition to our short-term effect estimation, we also test the effects of storm advisories on long run fertility. Our results provide weak evidence at most that the highest severity storm advisories have a permanent negative fertility effect.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2975.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2975

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Related research
Keywords: fertility; family planning; panel data models; disaster;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2007. "How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets: The Effects of Hurricanes in Florida," IZA Discussion Papers 2976, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-74, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, . "The Economics of Family Planning," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-5, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  5. Cristian Pop-Eleches, 2006. "The Impact of an Abortion Ban on Socioeconomic Outcomes of Children: Evidence from Romania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 744-773, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Strobl, Eric, 2008. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from US Coastal Counties," IZA Discussion Papers 3619, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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