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Reproductive behaviour at the end of the world: the effect of the Cuban Missile Crisis on U.S. fertility

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  • Paul A. Raschky
  • Liang Choon Wang

Abstract

We exploit the timing of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the geographical variation in mortality risks individuals faced across states to analyse reproduction decisions during the crisis. The results of a difference-in-differences approach show evidence that fertility decreased in states that are farther from Cuba and increased in states with more military installations. Our findings suggest that individuals are more likely to engage in reproductive activities when facing high mortality risks, but reduce fertility when facing a high probability of enduring the aftermath of a catastrophe.

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  • Paul A. Raschky & Liang Choon Wang, 2017. "Reproductive behaviour at the end of the world: the effect of the Cuban Missile Crisis on U.S. fertility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(56), pages 5722-5727, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:56:p:5722-5727
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1340571
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    8. Allison, Graham T., 1969. "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 689-718, September.
    9. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 349-397.
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    Cited by:

    1. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
    2. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    3. Finer, David Andrew, 2022. "No Shock Waves through Wall Street? Market Responses to the Risk of Nuclear War," Working Papers 318, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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