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Politics and elections at the Spanish stock exchange

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  • Ángel Pardo Tornero

    (Dpto. Economía Financiera y Actuarial)

  • María Dolores Furió Ortega

    (Universitat de València)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the influence of Spanish major political events on the stock market performance. The analytical results demonstrate that there are no systematic differences in excess returns in the last two years preceding an election, that market responses are of the same magnitude when incumbents win or lose the election, and that there is no difference between the excess returns during left-leaning and right-leaning governments. Regarding to the stock market performance around election dates, negative price changes are observed in the days prior to elections, reverting to positive once the election takes place. Our results are in line with the work of Brown, Harlow and Tinic (1988) on the Uncertain Information Hypothesis that postulates that volatility of stock returns increases following the arrival of unexpected information and prices rise as uncertainty is resolved.convirtiéndose en incrementos con posterioridad a las mismas. Estos resultados son consistentes con la hipótesis de información incierta de Brown et al. (1988), de acuerdo con la cual, la volatilidad de los rendimientos de las acciones se incrementa con la aparición en el mercado de información que no se esperaba y los precios se recuperan a medida que desaparece la incertidumbre. Este trabajo examina la influencia de la política en el comportamiento del mercado bursátil español. Analíticamente se demuestra que no hay diferencias sistemáticas en los rendimientos anormales de las acciones durante los dos años anteriores a la celebración de elecciones, que la respuesta del mercado es la misma con independencia de que un determinado partido revalide su victoria electoral y que no existen diferencias entre los rendimientos anormales de las acciones observados bajo gobiernos de izquierdas o de derechas. Con respecto al comportamiento de las acciones durante el periodo anterior y posterior a la fecha de las elecciones, se observan disminuciones en los precios en los días previos a las elecciones

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2010-11.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2010-11.

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    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2010
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2010-11

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    Related research

    Keywords: política; rendimientos anormales; comportamiento del mercado bursátil politics; excess returns; stock market performance;

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    References

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    1. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & Diego Prior & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, . "Devolution Dynamics of Spanish Local Government," Working Paper 201001, Department of Business Economics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.
    2. Francisco José Goerlich Gisbert & Rafael Pinilla Pallejà, 2009. "Esperanzas de vida libres de discapacidad por sexo y comunidad autónoma: 2004-2006," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-13, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Jacint Balaguer Coll & José C. Pernías, 2010. "Spatial density, average prices and price dispersion. Evidence from the Spanish hotel industry," Working Papers. Serie EC 2010-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    4. Francisco Requena & Guadalupe Serrano & Joan Martín Montaner, 2009. "The effects of immigration on the productive structure of Spanish regions," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    5. Pilar Beneito López & Amparo Sanchis Llopis & María Engracia Rochina Barrachina, 2009. "The role of learning in innovation: in-house versus externally contracted R&D experience," Working Papers. Serie EC 2009-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. M. Teresa Sanchis Llopis & Vicente Esteve Garcia & Antonio Cubel, 2010. "International technology diffusion through patents during the second half of the XXth century," Working Papers. Serie EC 2010-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    7. Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    8. Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
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