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“European Government Bond Markets and Monetary Policy Surprises: Returns, Volatility and Integration”

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Author Info

  • Pilar Abad

    ()
    (University Rey Juan Carlos and University of Barcelona)

  • Helena Chuliá

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the response of bond markets to euro area and US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we analyze the effect of unexpected changes in interest rates implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not only on the returns, but also on the volatility and the integration of European government bond markets. For all three characteristics our results show that the response to monetary policy surprises varies across groups of countries (EMU EU-15 central, EMU EU-15 peripheral, non-EMU EU-15 and non-EMU new EU). We also find that the effects of monetary policy announcements on the level of integration are more pronounced than those on returns and volatility. Finally, our results paint a complex picture of the effects of monetary policy news releases on the level of integration. The effect of ECB monetary policy surprises differs across old and new European Union members, while the effect of FOMC monetary policy surprises differs across EMU and non-EMU members.

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File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2013/201325.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics in its series IREA Working Papers with number 201325.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision: Dec 2013
Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201325

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Postal: Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona
Web page: http://www.ub.edu/irea/
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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy announcements; Bond market integration; Interest rate surprises. JEL classification: E44; F36; G15.;

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  1. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
  2. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2005. "European Monetary Policy Surprises: The Aggregate and Sectoral Stock Market Response," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  3. Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J. Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcementson Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/83, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
  5. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
  6. Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Working Papers 2010_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
  8. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  9. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Richard Priestley, 2006. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 365-392, January.
  10. Brenner, Menachem & Pasquariello, Paolo & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2009. "On the Volatility and Comovement of U.S. Financial Markets around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(06), pages 1265-1289, December.
  11. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  14. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
  15. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
  16. Nowak, Sylwia & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Macroeconomic fundamentals, price discovery, and volatility dynamics in emerging bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2584-2597, October.
  17. Rohan Christie-David & Mukesh Chaudhry & Walayet Khan, 2002. "News Releases, Market Integration, and Market Leadership," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 223-245.
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