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China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

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  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache

Abstract

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting inventory demand) have no effect on commodity prices. China’s impact on world commodity markets is rising but, perhaps surprisingly, remains smaller than that of the United States. This is mainly due to the dynamics of real activity growth shocks in the U.S, which tend to be more persistent and have larger effects on the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2012. "China's Impacton World Commodity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/115, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/115
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    Cited by:

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    5. Klotz, Philipp & Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2014. "Global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy: The relevance of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Zhang, Tianding & Zeng, Song, 2023. "Dynamic comovement and extreme risk spillovers between international crude oil and China's non-ferrous metal futures market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    9. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    10. Ajay Chhibber, 2017. "China's One Belt One Road Strategy: The New Financial Institutions and India’s Options," Working Papers 2017-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
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    13. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    14. Wang, Tian & Wang, Cangfeng, 2019. "The spillover effects of China's industrial growth on price changes of base metal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 375-384.
    15. Boureima Sawadogo & Tegawende Juliette Nana & Maimouna Hama Natama & Fidèle Bama & Emma Tapsoba & Kassoum Zerbo, 2015. "Impact de l'expansion économique et commerciale de la Chine sur la croissance et l'emploi au Burkina Faso: une analyse en équilibre général calculable," Working Papers MPIA 2015-03, PEP-MPIA.
    16. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2018. "China'S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 225-254, March.
    17. Guo, Yaoqi & Shi, Fengyuan & Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "The impact of oil shocks from different sources on China's clean energy metal stocks: An analysis of spillover effects based on a time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Philip Schellekens, 2013. "A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 16115, The World Bank Group.
    19. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Barslund, Mikkel & Hansen, Casper Worm & Harr, Thomas & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2014. "How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-26.
    20. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    21. Bertrand Gruss, 2014. "After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2014/154, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Apurva Sanghi & Andrew Burns & Calvin Djiofack & Dinar Prihardini & Jagath Dissanayake & Claire Hollweg, 2017. "A Rebalancing China and Resurging India," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28422, December.
    23. Liao, Jia & Qian, Qi & Xu, Xiangyun, 2018. "Whether the fluctuation of China’s financial markets have impact on global commodity prices?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1030-1040.
    24. Zhang, Jin & Li, Pujiang & Zhao, Guochang, 2018. "Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 211-216.
    25. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Cesar Calderon & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Mapi M. Buitano & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, October 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 22722, The World Bank Group.

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