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Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Ding Ding
  • Rahul Anand
  • Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

Abstract

This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation targeting rule can reduce macroeconomic volatility and anchor inflationary expectations given the size and type of shocks faced by the economy. Sri Lanka could aim to target a broad inflation range initially due to its susceptibility supply-side shocks while enhancing exchange rate flexibility and strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy in the transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding Ding & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2011. "Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2011/081, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Sri Lanka: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/447, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    10. Anna Nordstrom & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone & Seiichi Shimizu & Turgut Kisinbay & Jorge Restrepo, 2009. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
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    12. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/021, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Alasdair Scott & David Rose, 2009. "Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)," IMF Working Papers 2009/065, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anwar, Sarah. & Islam, Iyanatul,, 2011. "Should developing countries target low, single digit inflation to promote growth and employment," ILO Working Papers 994642503402676, International Labour Organization.
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik,Ila, 2014. "Monetary policy analysis in an inflation targeting framework in emerging economies: The case of India," Working Papers 14/131, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Chandranath Amarasekara & Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Csaba Kober & Tharindi Nugawela & Sergey Plotnikov & Adam Remo & Poongo, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    5. Harsha Paranavithana & Leandro Magnusson & Rod Tyers, 2021. "Monetary Policy Regimes in Small Open Economies: The Case of Sri Lanka," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 434-462, December.
    6. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    7. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2016. "Does Inflation Targeting in Asia Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 294-311, June.
    8. Ding Ding & John Nelmes & Roshan Perera & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2014. "Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 2014/040, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    WP; headline inflation;

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