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Wild or Tamed?: India’s Potential Growth

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  • Ms. Hiroko Oura

Abstract

With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing up-to-date projections of India's potential growth, including by clarifying differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that lead to a range of estimates. Estimates of potential growth on this basis range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07, and about 8 percent for the medium term. The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Hiroko Oura, 2007. "Wild or Tamed?: India’s Potential Growth," IMF Working Papers 2007/224, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/224
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    5. Mr. Dani Rodrik & Mr. Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections," IMF Working Papers 2004/118, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
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    Keywords

    WP; GDP; growth rate; India; ratio;
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