IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/23171.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index

Author

Listed:
  • Daskovska, Alexandra
  • Simar, Léopold
  • Van Bellegem, Sébastien

Abstract

The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only a static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to a method based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques described above by forecasting the productivityt index of 17 OCDE countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Daskovska, Alexandra & Simar, Léopold & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index," IDEI Working Papers 634, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:23171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://idei.fr/sites/default/files/medias/doc/wp/2009/wp_idei_634.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Léopold Simar & Paul Wilson, 2000. "Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: The State of the Art," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-78, January.
    2. Simar, L. & Wilson, P.W., 1998. "Productivity Growth in Industrialized Countries," Papers 9810, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
    3. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    4. Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul W., 1999. "Estimating and bootstrapping Malmquist indices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 459-471, June.
    5. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "Multilateral Comparisons of Output, Input, and Productivity Using Superlative Index Numbers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 73-86, March.
    6. Oulton,Nicholas & O'Mahony,Mary, 1994. "Productivity and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521453455.
    7. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    8. Van Bellegem, Sebastien & von Sachs, Rainer, 2004. "Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 611-627.
    9. Finn R. FF8rsund, 2002. "On the circularity of the Malmquist productivity index," ICER Working Papers 29-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Growiec, 2013. "On the measurement of technological progress across countries," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(5), pages 467-504.
    2. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Schwarz, Maik & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2010. "Nonparametric Frontier Estimation from Noisy Data," TSE Working Papers 10-179, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Antonio Peyrache, 2013. "Multilateral productivity comparisons and homotheticity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 57-65, August.
    4. Mayer, Andreas & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2014. "Aggregation of Malmquist productivity indexes allowing for reallocation of resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(3), pages 774-785.
    5. Andreas Mayer & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2018. "Aggregation of Individual Efficiency Measures and Productivity Indices," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012018, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Benjamin Hampf, 2016. "Efficiency and productivity measurement with persistent benchmarks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1715-1721.
    7. Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 2015. "Statistical Approaches for Non-parametric Frontier Models: A Guided Tour," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(1), pages 77-110, April.
    8. Shittu, Adebayo M. & Odine, Agatha I., 2014. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2010: the role of Investment, Governance and Trade," Conference papers 332439, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Md. Harun Ur Rashid & Shah Asadullah Mohd. Zobair & Md. Asad Iqbal Chowdhury & Azharul Islam, 2020. "Corporate governance and banks’ productivity: evidence from the banking industry in Bangladesh," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(2), pages 615-637, July.
    10. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Productivity patterns in Europe: adaptation of the Malmquist index to measuring group performance and productivity change over time," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 949-989, November.
    11. Valentin Zelenyuk, 2019. "Data Envelopment Analysis and Business Analytics: The Big Data Challenges and Some Solutions," CEPA Working Papers Series WP072019, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Reza Fallahnejad & Mohammad Reza Mozaffari & Peter Fernandes Wanke & Yong Tan, 2024. "Nash Bargaining Game Enhanced Global Malmquist Productivity Index for Cross-Productivity Index," Games, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Gloria O. Dzeha & Joshua Abor & Festus Turkson & Elikplimi Agbloyor, 2018. "Technical Efficiency and Technical Change in Africa: The Role of Money from the Diasporas," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(7), pages 177-177, July.
    14. Andreas Mayer & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2014. "An Aggregation Paradigm for Hicks-Moorsteen Productivity Indexes," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012014, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. Yubin Zheng & Md. Harun Ur Rashid & Abu Bakkar Siddik & Wei Wei & Syed Zabid Hossain, 2022. "Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure and Firm’s Productivity: Evidence from the Banking Industry in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel J. Henderson & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2017. "The Productivity of Nations," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2017-05, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2003. "Robust nonparametric estimation of efficiency and technical change in U.S. commercial banking," Working Papers 2003-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. George E. Halkos & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2015. "Measuring Seaports' Productivity: A Malmquist Productivity Index Decomposition Approach," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 49(2), pages 355-376, April.
    3. Isabel-María García-Sánchez & Luis Rodríguez-Domínguez & Javier Parra-Domínguez, 2013. "Yearly evolution of police efficiency in Spain and explanatory factors," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 31-62, January.
    4. Laurens Cherchye & Wim Moesen, 2003. "Institutional Infrastructure and Economic Performance: Levels versus Catching Up and Frontier Shifts," Public Economics Working Paper Series ces0314, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, Working Group Public Economics.
    5. Tortosa-Ausina, Emili & Grifell-Tatje, Emili & Armero, Carmen & Conesa, David, 2008. "Sensitivity analysis of efficiency and Malmquist productivity indices: An application to Spanish savings banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1062-1084, February.
    6. Léopold Simar & Paul W. Wilson, 2023. "Another look at productivity growth in industrialized countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 257-272, December.
    7. Wang, Tung-Pao & Shyu, Stacy Huey-Pyng & Chou, Han-Chung, 2012. "The impact of defense expenditure on economic productivity in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2104-2114.
    8. Cuadrado-Ballesteros, Beatriz & García-Sánchez, Isabel-María & Prado-Lorenzo, José-Manuel, 2013. "Effect of modes of public services delivery on the efficiency of local governments: A two-stage approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 23-35.
    9. Pontus Mattsson & Jonas Månsson & Christian Andersson & Fredrik Bonander, 2018. "A bootstrapped Malmquist index applied to Swedish district courts," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 109-139, August.
    10. Subal Kumbhakar & Efthymios Tsionas, 2008. "Scale and efficiency measurement using a semiparametric stochastic frontier model: evidence from the U.S. commercial banks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 585-602, June.
    11. Fadzlan Sufian & Fakarudin Kamarudin, 2014. "The impact of ownership structure on bank productivity and efficiency: Evidence from semi-parametric Malmquist Productivity Index," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, December.
    12. Chortareas G. & Desli E. & Pelagidis Th., 2002. "International Evidence on Convergence and Openness," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 1-91, July-Dece.
    13. Laure Latruffe & Yann Desjeux, 2016. "Common Agricultural Policy support, technical efficiencyand productivity change in French agriculture," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 97(1), pages 15-28.
    14. Oleg Badunenko & Bogdana Grechanyuk & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "Development Under Regulation: The Way of the Ukrainian Insurance Market," The IUP Journal of Managerial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 65-79, August-No.
    15. Latruffe, Laure & Fogarasi, József & Desjeux, Yann, 2012. "Efficiency, productivity and technology comparison for farms in Central and Western Europe: The case of field crop and dairy farming in Hungary and France," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 264-278.
    16. Edvardsen, Dag Fjeld & Forsund, Finn R., 2003. "International benchmarking of electricity distribution utilities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 353-371, October.
    17. Staat, Matthias, 2002. "Bootstrapped efficiency estimates for a model for groups and hierarchies in DEA," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 1-8, April.
    18. García-Meca, Emma & García-Sánchez, Isabel-María, 2018. "Does managerial ability influence the quality of financial reporting?," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 544-557.
    19. Gitto, Simone & Mancuso, Paolo, 2009. "Productivity change in Italian airports," MPRA Paper 34367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Efficiency, productivity and environmental policy: A case study of power generation in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1557-1568.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:23171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idtlsfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.