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Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones

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  • Giovanni L. Violante
  • Orazio P. Attanasio

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se elabora un modelo general de equilibrio generacional sobrepuesto para evaluar cuantitativamente la manera en que la transición demográfica (disminución de las tasas de mortalidad y fertilidad) inciden en las variables agregadas (salarios, tasa de interés, producción) y en el bienestar intergeneracional en economías cerradas y abiertas. Realizamos este análisis en dos economías calibradas para asemejarse al Norte (EE. UU. y Europa) y América Latina. Nuestras simulaciones sugieren que la transición demográfica puede haber generado un crecimiento del ingreso per cápita de hasta 0,5% al año por encima del crecimiento en estado estable durante los últimos 50 años en América Latina y de 0,3% en el Norte.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4195.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4195

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  1. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 153-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  6. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
  7. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
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