Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones

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Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones

Author Info

Giovanni L. Violante
Orazio P. Attanasio

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se elabora un modelo general de equilibrio generacional sobrepuesto para evaluar cuantitativamente la manera en que la transición demográfica (disminución de las tasas de mortalidad y fertilidad) inciden en las variables agregadas (salarios, tasa de interés, producción) y en el bienestar intergeneracional en economías cerradas y abiertas. Realizamos este análisis en dos economías calibradas para asemejarse al Norte (EE. UU. y Europa) y América Latina. Nuestras simulaciones sugieren que la transición demográfica puede haber generado un crecimiento del ingreso per cápita de hasta 0,5% al año por encima del crecimiento en estado estable durante los últimos 50 años en América Latina y de 0,3% en el Norte.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4195.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4195

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