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The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation

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  • Andrew B. Abel

Abstract

This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively, the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6991.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Publication status: published as Campbell, John and Martin Feldstein (eds.) Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6991

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  1. repec:fth:calaec:04-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, June.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, June.
  3. Jermann, Urban J., 1999. "Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 205-212, June.
  4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  5. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  6. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Should the Social Security Trust Fund Hold Equities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 666-697, July.
  7. repec:fth:calaec:03-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
  9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  10. repec:fth:calaec:3-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bohn, Henning, 1998. "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9r2809f0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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Cited by:
  1. Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2002. "Fostering Within-Family Human Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security," IZA Discussion Papers 678, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Takashi Oshio, 2004. "Social Security and Trust Fund Management," NBER Working Papers 10444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ang, Andrew & Maddaloni, Angela, 2003. "Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data," Working Paper Series 0208, European Central Bank.
  5. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "The Effects of Investing Social Security Funds in the Stock Market When Fixed Costs Prevent Some Households from Holding Stocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 128-148, March.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 1999. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 7029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. K. Mc Morrow & W. R�ger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 162, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones," Research Department Publications 4195, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2002. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implications for the Proposed Diversification of the Social Security Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1104-1115, September.
  10. Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos, 2000. "Social Security Investment in Equities in an Economy with Short-Term Production and Land," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Smetters, Kent, 2006. "Risk sharing across generations without publicly owned equities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1493-1508, October.
  12. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," Research Department Publications 4194, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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