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The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation

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Author Info
Andrew B. Abel

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Abstract

This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively, the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6991.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Publication status: published relationship to a non-chapter. This should not happen. Please contact NBER.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6991

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E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series wp3-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Henning Bohn, . "Should the Social Security Trust Fund hold Equities? An Intergenerational Welfare Analysis," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 4-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2003. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Working Papers 7030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Barbie & Marcus Hagedorn & Ashok Kaul, . "Fostering Within-Family Human Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security," IEW - Working Papers iewwp236, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2002. "Fostering Within-Family Human Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security," IZA Discussion Papers 678, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew B. Abel, . "The Effects of Investing Social Security Funds in the Stock Market When Fixed Costs Prevent Some Households from Holding Stocks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones," RES Working Papers 4195, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 1999. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 7029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Takashi Oshio, 2004. "Social Security and Trust Fund Management," NBER Working Papers 10444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos, 2000. "Social Security Investment in Equities in an Economy with Short-Term Production and Land," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1259, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2002. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implications for the Proposed Diversification of the Social Security Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1104-1115, September. [Downloadable!]
  11. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," RES Working Papers 4194, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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