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Social Security Investment in Equities in an Economy with Short-Term Production and Land

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Author Info
Peter Diamond (MIT)
John Geanakoplos () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper explores the general equilibrium impact of social security portfolio diversification into private securities, either through the trust fund or via private accounts. The analysis depends critically on heterogeneity in saving, in production, in assets, and in taxes. Under fairly general assumptions we show that limited diversification increases a neutral social welfare function, increases interest rates, reduces the expected return on short-term equity (and thus the equity premium), decreases safe investment and increases risky investment. However, the effect on aggregate investment, long-term capital values, and the utility of young savers hinges on delicate assumptions about technology. Aggregate investment and long-term asset values often move in the opposite direction. Thus social security diversification might reduce long-term equity value while it increases aggregate investment.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d12b/d1259.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1259.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1259

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Private accounts; trust fund; diversification; heterogeneity; overlapping generations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Olivia S. Mitchell & James F. Moore, . "Retirement Wealth Accumulation and Decumulation: New Developments and Outstanding Opportunities," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-8, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Henning Bohn, . "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 3-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Diamond, Peter A & Yaari, Menahem, 1972. "Implications of the Theory of Rationing for Consumer Choice Under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 333-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew B. Abel, . "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Henning Bohn, 1997. "Social Security reform and financial markets," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 193-227. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arthur B. Kennickell & Martha Starr-McCluer & Annika E. Sunden, 1997. "Family finances in the U.S.: recent evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  8. John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Social Security Money's Worth," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-20, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    Other versions:
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