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The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation

In: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform

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  • Andrew B. Abel

Abstract

This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively, the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in:

  • John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 10594.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:10594

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
    3. repec:fth:calaec:4-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Online Appendix to Should the Social Security Trust Fund hold Equities? An Intergenerational Welfare Analysis," Technical Appendices bohn99, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    5. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, October.
      • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, October.
    6. repec:fth:calaec:04-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
    8. repec:fth:calaec:3-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jermann, Urban J., 1999. "Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 205-212, June.
    10. Bohn, Henning, 1998. "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9r2809f0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    11. repec:fth:calaec:03-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew B. Abel, . "The Effects of Investing Social Security Funds in the Stock Market When Fixed Costs Prevent Some Households from Holding Stocks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Martin Barbie & Marcus Hagedorn & Ashok Kaul, 2006. "Fostering Within-Family Human-Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 503-529, December.
    4. Smetters, Kent, 2006. "Risk sharing across generations without publicly owned equities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1493-1508, October.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 1999. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 7029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," Research Department Publications 4194, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Transición demográfica en economías cerradas y abiertas: historia de dos regiones," Research Department Publications 4195, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Maddaloni, Angela, 2003. "Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data," Working Paper Series 0208, European Central Bank.
    9. K. Mc Morrow & W. R�ger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 162, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2002. "The Risk Premium for Equity: Implications for the Proposed Diversification of the Social Security Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1104-1115, September.
    11. Takashi Oshio, 2004. "Social Security and Trust Fund Management," NBER Working Papers 10444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos, 2000. "Social Security Investment in Equities in an Economy with Short-Term Production and Land," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1259, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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