Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks
AbstractWe propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and insurance companies. We predict firms’ systemic relevance as the marginal impact of individual downside risks on systemic distress. The so-called systemic risk betas account for a company’s position within the network of financial interdependencies in addition to its balance sheet characteristics and its exposure towards general market conditions. Relying only on publicly available daily market data, we determine time-varying systemic risk networks, and forecast systemic relevance on a quarterly basis. Our empirical findings reveal time-varying risk channels and firms’ specific roles as risk transmitters and/or risk recipients.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2013-008.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Forecasting systemic risk contributions; time-varying systemic risk network; model selection with regularization in quantiles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-02-08 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2013-02-08 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FOR-2013-02-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-NET-2013-02-08 (Network Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2013-02-08 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2012.
"Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2012-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012.
"Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
- Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2011. "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," Working Papers 2011_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd, 2011. "Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 312-325, June.
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