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Pricing Chinese rain: a multi-site multi-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives

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Author Info

  • Wolfgang Härdle
  • Maria Osipenko

Abstract

Many industries are exposed to weather risk which they can transfer on financial markets via weather derivatives. Equilibrium models based on partial market clearing became a useful tool for pricing such kind of financial instruments. In a multi-period equilibrium pricing model agents rebalance their portfolio of weather bonds and a risk free asset in each period such that they maximize the expected utility of their incomes constituted by possibly weather dependent profits and payoffs of portfolio positions. We extend the model to a multisite version and apply it to pricing rainfall derivatives for Chinese provinces. By simulating realistic market conditions with two agent types, farmers with profits highly exposed to weather risk and a financial investor diversifying her financial portfolio, we obtain equilibrium prices for weather derivatives on cumulative monthly rainfall. Dynamic portfolio optimization under market clearing and utility indifference of these representative agents determines equilibrium quantity and price for rainfall derivatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-055.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-055

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Keywords: rainfall derivatives; equilibrium pricing; space-time Markov model;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Brenda López Cabrera & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2013. "Pricing Rainfall Derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
  3. M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.

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