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Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

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  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

Abstract

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all conforming supply equations. Specializing further to IS demand, determinacy depends only on the parameters in the interest rate rule and a pure forward or backward-looking inflation target is inconsistent with determinacy. Monetary policy that embodies the Taylor principle with respect to contemporaneous inflation delivers a determinate equilibrium in all models that satisfy the NRH.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2011-049.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-049.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049

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Keywords: Time Series; Natural rate hypothesis; Phillips curve; Taylor Principle;

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References

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  1. Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Oracally Efficient Two-Step Estimation of Generalized Additive Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Markus Reiß, 2011. "Asymptotic equivalence and sufficiency for volatility estimation under microstructure noise," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  10. Stephan Stahlschmidt & Helmut Tausendteufel & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2011. "Bayesian Networks and Sex-related Homicides," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  12. Lu Lin & Feng Li & Lixing Zhu & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "Mean Volatility Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  13. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2011. "Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  17. Xiaoliang Liu & Wei Xu & Martin Odening, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  18. Markus Reiß & Yves Rozenholc & Charles A. Cuenod, 2011. "Pointwise adaptive estimation for quantile regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  19. Dirk Hofmann & Salmai Qari, 2011. "The Law of Attraction: Bilateral Search and Horizontal Heterogeneity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  20. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "Identifying the Effect of Temporal Work Flexibility on Parental Time with Children," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-024, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  21. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny & Weining Wang, 2011. "Local Quantile Regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  22. Johanna Kappus & Markus Reiß, 2011. "Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process observed at arbitrary frequency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  23. Shuzhuan Zheng & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Sparse Longitudinal Data Curves," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  24. Juliane Scheffel, 2011. "How do Unusual Working Schedules Affect Social Life?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  25. Esra Akdeniz Duran & Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2011. "A Confidence Corridor for Expectile Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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